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Abstract Private lands are important for conservation worldwide, but knowledge about their effectiveness is still insufficient. To help fill this important knowledge gap, we analyzed the impacts of a national policy for conservation on private lands in Brazil, a global biodiversity hotspot with high potential for nature-based climate solutions. Through the evaluation of over 4 million private rural properties from the Rural Environmental Cadastre, we found that the last policy review in 2012 mainly affected the Amazon Forest. The amnesty granted to 80% of landowners of small properties prevented the restoration of 14.6 million hectares of agricultural land with a carbon sequestration potential of 2.4 gigatonnes. We found that private lands exist within the limits of public conservation areas and that between 2003 and 2020 deforestation rates in these private lands were higher than those across all conservation areas. The Rural Environmental Cadastre can be an effective tool for managing forests within private lands, with potential to integrate governance approaches to control deforestation and mitigate climate change. 

Abstract Over the last few years, understanding of the effects of increasingly interconnected global flows of agricultural commodities on coupled human and natural systems has significantly improved. However, many important factors in environmental change that are influenced by these commodity flows are still not well understood. Here, we present an empirical spatial modelling approach to assess how changes in forest cover are influenced by trade destination. Using data for soybean-producing municipalities in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, between 2004 and 2017, we evaluated the relationships between forest cover change and the annual soybean trade destination. Results show that although most of the soybean produced in Mato Grosso during the study period (60%) was destined for international markets, municipalities with greater and more consistent soybean production not destined for international markets during the study period were more strongly associated with deforestation. In these municipalities, soybean production was also significantly correlated with cattle and pasture expansion. These results have important implications for the sustainable management of natural resources in the face of an increasingly interconnected world, while also helping to identify the most suitable locations for implementing policies to reduce deforestation risks. 

The world has entered the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030), yet many regions of the world still face environmental degradation. In this context a question arises: under what conditions may a given region shift from a trajectory of environmental degradation to environmental recovery? Answering this question constitutes an important endeavor for the scientific community, policymakers, and organizations leading the planning and implementation of restoration projects. This study examines some of the human-environment conditions underpinning the net gains in natural forest cover in a region that has experienced environmental degradation: the Atlantic Forest biome, Brazil. Using land-use/cover (LULC) data, we assessed the loss and successive gain in forest cover during the 1987–2001 and 2001–2015 periods. Municipality-level statistics on agriculture and economy, together with LULC and biophysical data, were used to develop models for assessing forest cover trajectories. Of the 1,972 municipalities experiencing net forest loss during the 1987–2001 period, 59% shifted their trajectory to a net gain during the 2001–2015 period. This shift, known as forest transition, followed a complex socio-economic pathway characterized by (i) the stagnation of traditional agricultural activities favoring the replacement of pasturelands by mechanized agriculture, and (ii) the emergence of non-agricultural rural activities together with multifunctional landscapes. Furthermore, a trend of decrease in precipitation seems to be associated with land abandonment, thus, favoring the return of natural vegetation. Our findings suggest that forest transition at the biome level is possible if environmental and land regulations take advantage of specific context-dependent situations that foster net forest gains. 

Abstract Human–environment interactions within and across borders are now more influential than ever, posing unprecedented sustainability challenges. The framework of metacoupling (interactions within and across adjacent and distant coupled human–environment systems) provides a useful tool to evaluate them at diverse temporal and spatial scales. While most metacoupling studies have so far addressed the impacts of distant interactions (telecouplings), few have addressed the complementary and interdependent effects of the interactions within coupled systems (intracouplings) and between adjacent systems (pericouplings). Using the production and trade of a major commodity (soybean) as a demonstration, this paper empirically evaluates the complex effects on deforestation and economic growth across a globally important soybean producing region (Mato Grosso in Brazil). Although this region is influenced by a strong telecoupling process (i.e., soybean trade with national and international markets), intracouplings pose significant effects on deforestation and economic growth within focal municipalities. Furthermore, it generates pericoupling effects (e.g., deforestation) on adjacent municipalities, which precede economic benefits on adjacent systems, and may occur during and after the soybean production takes place. These results show that while economic benefits of the production of agricultural commodities for global markets tend to be localized, their environmental costs tend to be spatially widespread. As deforestation also occurred in adjacent areas beyond focal areas with economic development, this study has significant implications for sustainability in an increasingly metacoupled world. 

Two recently constructed run-of-the-river dams (Santo Antônio and Jirau), along the Madeira River in Brazil, have been controversial due to their large unquantified impacts on (1) land use and land cover (LULC) and (2) on the area that would be flooded. Based on annual LULC data from 1985 to 2017, this study integrated intensity analysis and difference components methods to analyze the impacts of the two dams on the annual flooded area in upstream, midstream, and downstream regions of the Madeira River. The dam construction significantly influenced LULC change intensity in the upstream and midstream regions since 2011 and 2010, respectively. An increase of 18.5% of the newly flooded area (462.58 km2) in the post-dam construction period was observed. The water gross gain intensity was active during 2011–2017 and 2011–2014 in upstream and midstream, respectively. The dominant difference components of water change were exchanged in the pre-dam period and became quantity in the post-dam period for both upstream and midstream regions. Forest was the major land category replaced by water; however, the highest gain intensities occurred in other non-vegetated areas in upstream and midstream. This study provided a useful approach for characterizing impacts of dam construction on water area change. 

Agricultural systems are heterogeneous across temporal and spatial scales. Although much research has investigated farm size and economic output, the synergies and trade-offs across various agricultural and socioeconomic variables are unclear. This study applies a GIS-based approach to official Brazilian census data (Agricultural Censuses of 1995, 2006, and 2017) and surveys at the municipality level to (i) evaluate changes in the average soybean farm size across the country and (ii) compare agricultural and socioeconomic outcomes (i.e., soybean yield, agricultural production value, crop production diversity, and rural labor employment) relative to the average soybean farm size. Statistical tests (e.g., Kruskal–Wallis tests and Spearman’s correlation) were used to analyze variable outcomes in different classes of farm sizes and respective Agricultural Censuses. We found that agricultural and socioeconomic outcomes are spatially correlated with soybean farm size class. Therefore, based on the concepts of trade-offs and synergies, we show that municipalities with large soybean farm sizes had larger trade-offs (e.g., larger farm size was associated with lower crop diversity), while small and medium ones manifest greater synergies. These patterns are particularly strong for analysis using the Agricultural Census of 2017. Trade-off/synergy analysis across space and time is key for supporting long-term strategies aiming at alleviating unemployment and providing sustainable food production, essential to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals. 

Increasing connections and influences from near to far have changed social structures, access to natural resources, and essential livelihoods of smallholders (i.e., those with incomes generated primarily from natural resources on small rural properties). However, the potential benefits and negative impacts from these connections to smallholders’ livelihoods and social-ecological effects remain understudied. In this paper, we applied the frameworks of pericoupling and telecoupling (human-nature interactions between adjacent and distant systems, respectively) to systematically investigate how the flows linking smallholder systems to other systems affect their livelihoods, and causing varying economic, social, and environmental effects from case to case. We synthesized 12 cases of smallholder systems around the world that are linked to adjacent and distant systems through flows of goods, people, resources, and/or information. In each case, we summarized smallholders’ agency, i.e., capability on the formation or operation of these flows, and the changes on livelihoods on the economic, social, and environment effects. Results suggest that strong smallholder agency is associated more with positive than negative effects. Smallholders with medium to high agency have greater overall well-being within the area of interest. Smallholders integrated in pericoupled systems often have strong agency. Being spillover systems in an intercoupled system (e.g., large-scale agricultural investments) can often cause negative outcomes unless smallholders have additional pericoupling flows. Our findings suggest one potential approach to ending poverty and increasing well-being for smallholders is creating and increasing pericoupling flows to empower smallholders for desired livelihood and social-ecological outcomes.